Private markets in 2026: towards a rebound in transactions?
Private markets opened 2025 on a positive note after early signs of recovery in 2024. That mood faded fast once “liberation day” and new Trump tariffs hit, pulling deal activity lower.
The old meets theM&a lost momentum early
The overall value of deals jumped 25 percent to around 2 trillion dollars in early 2025, even though the actual number of deals dropped 16 percent. A few mega transactions propped up the totals while the mid-market stepped back to assess tariff risk.
Q3 volume looked better again, helped by another burst of large deals, including silver lake’s 55 billion dollar take-private of electronic arts. With financing conditions easing and tariff policy settling, 2026 should bring a broader recovery.
Buyouts ran into the same tension
Capital is available, but it is not being put to work. About 1.2 trillion dollars earmarked for buyouts is still sitting on the sidelines, and a quarter of it has been idle for years. The real bottleneck is selling existing holdings.
Many assets are now being kept for around six years, which is longer than usual. As a result, investors are left short on liquidity and managers have less room to pursue new deals. Funds that manage clean exits stand out.
Private credit remains attractive
Assets under management (aum) moved beyond 2 trillion dollars as the asset class settled into a more mature phase. Competition tightened spreads, and banks reasserted themselves, but the return profile holds up.
Defaults remain manageable and the illiquidity premium still works. Private credit’s global aum is forecast to increase to 4.50 trillion dollars by the end of 2030, at an annualised rate of 13.6% over the period.
Infrastructure as an all-weather solution
About 200 billion dollars was raised in the first nine months of 2025, already ahead of 2024. Overall, investors moved toward projects that offer both more risk and higher upside potential.
The long-term case remains solid, even as the sector adjusts to shifting energy policy and the heavy power needs created by ai and transport electrification. Manager consolidation continued.
Another record year for the secondary market
After a 171 billion dollars record in 2024, volumes in 2025 are set to reach roughly 200 billion dollars. Managers created liquidity through continuation vehicles and investors sold portfolios to rebalance toward newer vintages. Pricing held steady as buyers concentrated on higher-quality assets.
December 18, 2025
